[Disclaimer]: This entry might contain MINOR spoilers. However, while the analysis might push you to these minor spoilers, NO foretelling spoiler is present. Therefore, please follow the same guideline, and understand that any spoiler can just ruin this critical part of the story for any reader. Good reading!
Beatrice made her second move, and yet another closed room murder. However, aside of Beatrice, it is rather more interesting to see what’s going on with the remaining survivors in order to have a better idea regarding the possible suspect in this onslaught.
Be sure to have watched the episode before reading this !
This week, I will focus mainly on the following points :
- Second Twilight
- Wolf and Sheep
- Furniture of the witch
I. Second Twilight
Before going downright with the problem we have now, there is something very interesting with Meta Battler: despite the scene has shown us pretty well the crazy stuff happening in Jessica’s room and the fact Kanon’s death was quite noticeable, Meta Battler asked Beatrice to states Kanon died in Jessica’s room.
Furthermore the simple demonstration of such events would definitely make Meta Battler’s position crumbling: there is no way he would remain normal after watching magic from start to finish. Therefore, the conclusion is simple: Meta Battler didn’t witness that scene involving Jessica, Kanon, Beatrice and her furniture.
That naturally explains why Meta Battler isn’t defeated yet, and Beatrice will have to prove him no human could do that.
Thus, back with the second twilight, we know the following things:
1) Jessica and Kanon were left together: confirmed by Gohda.
2) Jessica was killed, a deep wound in her back
3) Kanon disappeared and his corpse is nowhere to be found
4) Jessica’s room is locked, the window was also locked from the inside.
And now, the red text:
The only master keys, keys which can open any door, are the ones each servant holds, one per person. That means there are 5 in total!
There are absolutely no types of hidden doors in this room. This door is the only way in or out. The only way to lock this door is with Jessica’s key or the keys held by each servant, one per servant. The window is also locked from the inside.
Kanon was killed in this room.
When the door is locked, it is impossible to enter or exit through it by any means. It is also impossible to lock the door from the outside without using a key.
That make this situation a bit more intricate than the chapel’s case, but in the end there is nothing that special.
First, let’s analyze Kanon’s case:
Beatrice has declared he is dead. Some people might speculate he is actually alive and his “kanon” personality just died.
The reasoning isn’t bad because Kanon was definitely shown with quite a complex, thinking himself like an object instead of a human. Therefore, “Kanon the furniture” could have been killed, but the human (real name unknown) didn’t die. Some might speculate that, the personality was “killed” when Kanon declared he became “human”.
However, the problem I see with this reasoning is the word used by Beato: “killed”. Regardless if it was in English and Japanese, the use of this term and the context are pretty clear: Kanon was deprived of his life, and unless you take the utmost philosophic approach, it is pretty straight forward regarding Kanon’s fate.
Therefore, we “should” favor the assumption he is indeed dead.
Now the thing is actually the core problem of this murder case: why did they bother doing that?
At the first glance, anyone would conclude the culprit wants to frame Kanon, but that speculation doesn’t work in Umineko because we know a bit more than the simple situation of a “murder mystery”.
From Episode 1, it is pretty clear that the culprit has a very high obsession regarding the ceremony. Therefore, framing a “human” is rather strange: wouldn’t it be less troublesome and more effective to leave Kanon’s corpse in Jessica’s room? Unless Kanon’s corpse itself has something special that the culprit doesn’t want to be disclosed. In any case, if we speculate the culprit isn’t Kanon, the reason behind his disappearance is shrouded in mystery for now.
Now the other point of this case is the door.
The room is closed unless one unlocks it with either Jessica’s key or one of the 5 master keys. Since Kanon’s key and Jessica’s key were left in the room, we are to believe it has to be either Genji, Shannon, Gohda or Kumasawa. However, there are various loopholes here.
First, what are the proof that the keys of the aforementioned servants are indeed the master key?
For instance, what if the culprit managed to swap the key of the servants? Gohda’s key is definitely genuine since it could open Jessica’s room. However, we don’t know about Genji, Shannon and Kumasawa’s. Kanon’s key is a little different since Genji did check it, and was certain that it is Kanon’s master key.
The second loophole is a little more subtle: what is the proof Jessica’s key was indeed that genuine key? They saw a strap on it, and so what? They didn’t bother checking the key, therefore it wouldn’t be strange to speculate the key was indeed genuine. Therefore, the culprit just could lock the door like this.
The third possible loophole is a bit cliché but well: what if Jessica locked the door herself?
It might sound a bit far fetched, but it happens the victims are trying to shelter themselves after being attacked.
So let’s imagine Kanon was killed in Jessica’s room. The culprit and Jessica are fighting a bit, and before being knocked back, the culprit managed to stabs Jessica (or, let’s imagine Jessica was stabbed first, but in a last ditch effort, she kicked out the culprit).
That kind of wound doesn’t deal an instant death, but the hemorraghe just sealed the deal. Thus, there is a possibility that Jessica acted a little bit before succumbing from her wounds. If she manages to fend off her aggressor, she could close the door and lock it, faints and then dies.
From this possibility, a very complex but feasible situation would be like this: Jessica manages to calm down a bit and take a rest. Kanon remains around, but is attacked by the culprit. As the culprit is taking Kanon’s corpse first, Jessica wakes up, and then a fight might have occured.
I must admit this kind of situation sounds a tad crazy, but it doesn’t contradict the red, and it is possible (from the starting assumption that Kanon isn’t the killer).
Considering Beatrice’s position, confirming the room was locked by a master key might be troublesome regarding her claim it was magic. However, we know from the very first meta world argument that Beatrice is trying to bluff with her red at a certain point.
Therefore, her calm and provoking attitude might be an act of bluff, and that she really “can’t” say in red, instead of “don’t want”. That’s the little mind game here.
Anyway, if she really can’t say it in red, that must be Jessica’s key, which fits the speculation that the key they have found in Jessica’s room isn’t hers. But if she didn’t want to, it isn’t a problem either, since we can suspect Gohda or Kumasawa like Rosa did, or we can speculate that one of the servant got their key stolen so.
Anyway, this closed room murder case isn’t anything special, regardless if you speculate Kanon did it or someone else did it, without being oblidged to suspect the servants.
II. Wolf and Sheep
Rosa’s reasoning is quite an interesting view, but considering how the situation is, it is basically flawed and borderline ridiculous.
Rosa claims the culprit isn’t alone and will attack the “sheep” when they are outnumbering them.
That sounds all nice and dandy, but isn’t it just a game rule? As we know from Kyrie’s theory, the chessboard thinking, there is a flaw: an absolute rule doesn’t work at all if the players do not follow the said rule or have a personal agenda, another victory condition.
Therefore, in this reasoning, Rosa uses a ridiculous basis that the culprits only act when they are outnumbering the sheep, and they will do so.
But why would they bother to wait for that kind of situational criteria?
I personally cannot imagine the siblings going to sleep after what happened during the last night, therefore, it is safe to assume they were attacked by the culprit(s) when they were together (proved in Episode 1), regardless if it was directly (weapons) or indirectly (poison, carbon monoxide, etc). Therefore, Rosa’s reasoning is flawed, because it would need at least 7 “wolves” for this job. That is absolutely ridiculous because there isn’t enough “wolves” unless we speculate the cousins did that which is even more silly in term of alibi. Even so, Rosa purposedly focus on the number, instead of the means, even though they believe the food might have been poisoned. Isn’t that a contradiction?
The other problem I see with this reasoning is also the fact they “will” attack once the opportunity is shown: Rosa argued that since Shannon wasn’t attacked despite she was alone with Genji, she is a wolf.
… Come again? Why would the culprit attack the “innocent” servant that early? That would cast even more suspicions on the rest of them and it would make things even more complicated than anything else.
Again, why do they need to attack as soon as possible? If the culprit(s) has a specific idea in mind, there is no need to rush considering there is a full day for them to kill everyone. Therefore, the fact she is arguing that much is just unnatural.
When I read that in the VN, my take over Rosa’s behavior was even more twisted: why did Rosa deliberately ignored Beatrice’s existence, unless people bring about it? Why did she ignore the letter? Why doesn’t she tell to the survivors about last night meeting?
And to make things even more interesting: why didn’t she mention Kinzo, of all things? It is kinda surprising that NONE are worrying about him, despite he is left unchecked for many hours.
Worse: Rosa did visit him to get the winchester and to meet Shannon and Genji, that’s why she said she can testify both are “innocent” regarding Kanon and Jessica’s case.
But why didn’t she speculated that Kinzo is a wolf then? I mean that he is damn rich, and he is a occult maniac: he would be the prime suspect regarding the insane massacre for a witch. Furthermore, if she speculates that Genji and Shannon ARE wolves:
1) Why was Kinzo left alive?
2) Why was Rosa left alive? (before she got the winchester)
3) how does it make any sense to attack randomly while a sheep has a gun?
Honestly, this reasoning is anything BUT logical and regarding how she is so persistent, it is too suspicious by itself.
Although I did speculate there is an equal chance she is innocent as well (the lack of taking the opportunity to blame Beatrice, so to speak), her behavior from this point is anything but rational.
To make things worse, she hereby claims to George and Battler that she can be trusted because if she wanted, she could kill them etc.
The fact she says in the VN she can claim they were killed by Beatrice doesn’t make sense whatsoever: if she kills them in the open, sure she can claim that to the servants, but how will she be able to craft an alibi when the police investigation will check the corpses? A bullet wound is much easier to identify than gruesome pieces of meat, so they would be able to identify the bullet and pinpoint Rosa did it, no matter what silly “the witch did that!” claim she would gleefully state.
I won’t conclude she is the culprit for sure, but her behavior is really too much from this point. Furthermore there is no one that can assert her alibi for the period she was leaving to get the winchester. Since Shannon and Genji were with Kinzo, nothing can testify what Rosa was meddling around.
I really believe that Rosa knows something, but plays dumb and blames everything on the servant, as soon as possible. Speaking of which, she blamed quickly the servants regarding how the room was locked: although we have the advantage to know there are only 5 master keys, there is no guarantee that can be trusted in the gameboard. So how Rosa can be sure Beatrice didn’t have any key? She is attacking the servants by the lack of alibi, but Beatrice herself has the MOST fragile alibi among all of the persons on Rokkenjima.
The other odd point is: if she is really right, why doesn’t she keep everything in the same room without allowing anyone to move, unless everyone do that?
The last thing was irrational from her reasoning: she left the servants leaving, shrinking even more the possible amount of sheep in the servant side. Would she take the risk to figure who is the culprit, to the cost of a servant life? That would make their situation worse in term of manpower.
Thus, even with her own reasoning, she isn’t making any sense.
III. Furniture of the witch
The end of the episode was rather troublesome, but let’s see how it can be rationally explained.
So, Beatrice clearly stated Kanon was killed, so how come he would be there then?
The first theory people would have in mind is: “Kanon” (the furniture) died, and the “human kanon” (real name unknown) just barged in for a massacre. Nothing really special, it is straight forward.
The other possibility is: a kanon look-alike. The culprit has a very similar look and the servants mistook him.
Another speculation might be as follow: the real kanon was used like trash. Let’s imagine the culprit made some noise on purpose, and as Gohda opens the door, they are startled to see Kanon’s corpse. In panic, the culprit dashes in, kills Kumasawa and Nanjo before leaving as fast as he entered.
Considering the servants behavior, they have little faith in what they have seen, yet their senses tell them it was “true”.
So, again it is an “easy” explanation, but what about plain hallucinations?
Once again, I should remind you that my take on the story in umineko is definitely “mystery”, therefore, the premise should be “a human did that!”, without any room to let “fantasy” to be even speculated in it (only applicable on the world, so “gameboard”, not the meta world).
Thus, if something goes against the idea of “mystery”, there is nothing that can testify it is the truth, so if our source of information is corrupted by any mean (hallucinations, mania, etc) that won’t contradict the certain human culprit with the crazy flashy show we have been fed so far in Episode 2.
My apologies for such late analysis. I had to make sure I wasn’t going to talk too much before watching 2-5 in order not to bypass the scope of what Deen will cover or not, and it seems I will just cover the rest in Episode 2-5 analysis.
That said, I hope this little article will be somewhat helpful even at this point of the plot.